Forcible Displacement

One in every five persons of concern to UNHCR globally (20.5 %) live in the Americas, one of the hardest-hit regions by the pandemic and its socio-economic downturn.

As per 2020 statistical reporting in the Americas, the total population of concern is 18,357,000, this includes:

• Total Refugees 760,000, Asylum-seekers 2,112,000 and Venezuelan Displaced Abroad 3,856,000, accounting for a total of 6,728,000.

• Total Internally Displaced Persons 8,571,000.

• Total Statelessness 4,000.

• Total Other of Concerns 3,052,000.

The total number of persons of concern by end of 2020 stood at 18,357,000, an increase of more than 20 per cent from 2019.

Figure 1: | Population of Concern in 2020 in the Americas

Other of concerns also includes specific host population and is now included in UNHCR Statistics.

Solutions

Finding solutions that enable refugees and other forcibly displaced people to live their lives in dignity and peace is a core part of UNHCR work. They can include voluntary repatriation (aka “Return”), resettlement and integration (aka “Naturalisation”).

• Total Returned Refugees 0
• Total Returned IDP 0
• Total Resettlement 19,000
• Total Naturalisation 5,000

In the region, the total recorded solutions account for about 0.13 % of the total number of people of concern to UNHCR.

Figure 2: | Ressettlement Trends in the last 25 years in the America

Population Flow over time

Most movement remains south-to-south

The Americas hosts 20 per cent of the total persons of concern to UNHCR in the world. In more details, the 18 per cent of the world’s Internally Displaced Persons population, more than 8 million in Colombia. More than 50 per cent of Asylum-seekers (pending cases) of the world are in Americas. 3 per cent of the refugees. 38 per cent of the world People in refugee-like situations and the 37 per cent Others of concern to UNHCR worldwide. Venezuelans displaced abroad are only reported in Americas.

There were more than 6.7 million (6,728,000) refugees, asylum-seekers and Venezuelan displaced abroad (a new category), more than 8 million internally displaced persons (8,571,000) in the region. Persons under UNHCR’s statelessness mandate in the region by end of 2020 stood at 4,000.

The following chart visualizes population movements between source and destination countries in the region. Countries that account for less than 1% of the population of concern were lumped together as “Other”.

Figure 3: | Population origin-destination in the region

Venezuelan Displaced Abroad: a specific statistical category

Venezuelan Displaced Abroad is relatively new category for UNHCR.

According to interviews and protection monitoring exercises conducted by UNHCR and partners, Venezuelans claim that they are leaving the country for a variety of reasons, including persecution on account of their individual profiles, insecurity and violence, lack of access to food, medicine and essential services, as well as loss of income as a result of the current human rights, political and socioeconomic situation in Venezuela. Based on these reports, as well as reliable information in the public domain from a wide range of sources about the situation in Venezuela, UNHCR considers that for a number of profiles, international protection considerations are likely to arise under the 1951 Convention/1967 Protocol relating to the Status of Refugees depending on the circumstances of the individual case. While individual circumstances and reasons for departure from Venezuela vary, UNHCR considers that the majority of Venezuelan nationals, or stateless persons who were habitually resident in Venezuela, are in need of international protection under the criteria contained in the Cartagena Declaration on the basis of threats to their lives, security or freedom resulting from the events that are currently seriously disturbing public order in Venezuela.

Figure 4: | Evolution over time of the different Population of Concern

The evolution in the last 20 years shows a significant increase in Internally Displaced Persons, specifically in Colombia (8,252,788 over 8,571,000). In the last five years, Asylum-seekers increased substantially. Recently a new category were introduced Venezuelan Displaced Abroad. Refugees are stationary over the time. It is registered an important increase over the last two years of Other of Concerns (in 2020, 3,052,000).

(Perception of…) Violence & Displacement

Proportion of people who left their countries

Figure 5: | Proportion of the population who are refugees, by country of origin (SDG Indicator 10.7.4)

Forced displacement as a result of conflict, violence, and other causes undermine sustainable development (Goal 10: Reduce inequality within and among countries ), and can increase the risk of regional instability, especially when refugees are hosted in neighboring countries, resulting in possible tensions with local populations. The United Nations General Assembly Resolution (A/Res/70/1) that adopted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development recognizes the relevance of the Agenda to meet the needs of refugees, internally displaced persons and migrants on the basis that they are among the most vulnerable. It also explicitly states that Member States resolve to take further effective measures and actions, to “strengthen support and meet the special needs of people living in areas affected by complex humanitarian emergencies”. The target 10.7 recognizes for the first time the contribution of migration to sustainable development by aiming to “facilitate orderly, safe, and responsible migration and mobility of people, including through implementation of planned and well-managed migration policies”.

Incidence of violence per country

Figure 6: | Conflict-related deaths per 100,000 population (SDG Indicator 16.1.2)

This graph shows the ‘Conflict-related deaths per 100,000 population’. The five most violent countries in Americas are from the central America: Belize, Honduras, Mexico, El Salvador and Guatemala. Central America is the most violence place of Americas and of the entire world. The violence seems concentrated in the big cities and Criminal gangs have territorial control in Central America, where poverty is rampant. In these areas, people experiment poverty and economic inequality according with mejor socio-ecomomic index. ACLED collects real-time data of all reported political violence.

Figure 7: | Largest Countries of Asylum

Considering together Refugees, Asylum Seekers and Venezuelan Displaced Abroad, Colombia is the first country with more population, especially for the presence of Venezuelan Displaced Abroad (1,729,537). United States of America has the second largest host has a big component of Refugees (340,844) and Asylum Seekers (997,998). The third country, Peru has a great component of Venezuelan Displaced Abroad (515,039).

Figure 8: | Other Displacement

Colombia OOC is the sum of Other persons of concern (500,000) and Host Community (787,450). Normally, Other persons of concern are people out of their country, in the special case of Colombia Other persons of concern are mostly returnee Colombians from Venezuela.

Refugee Status Determination (RSD) Processing

As part of statistics collection, UNHCR collate information on Refugee Status Determination (RSD) applications. It is important to recall that those represents “applications” (not applicants!) and therefore interpretation of those data should account for potential built-in double count, specifically for the US where multiple procedures can actually be initiated in parallel

How are RSD applications done?

Figure 9: | Asylum Application in 2020

This chart shows the RSD procedures in Americas. Below the same graphs by country are reproduced. From left to the right: The first line represent the nationalities of the RSD applications. The second vertical line represent the institution where the RSD people applies: in Americas people applied mostly to the government, and sometimes directly to UNHCR. The third line describes the stage of the RSD applications (the process is different in every country). The forth and last vertical line shows the results of the RSD applications.

Most RSD applications comes from Venezuelan. Other relevant country of origin are: Nicaragua, Mexico, Honduras, Haiti, Guatemala, El Salvador and Cuba. Again the Central America countries are the most relevant. Most RSD activities occurs in the US. Traditionally, Canada has relevant RSD activities as well. Mexico, Brazil and Costa Rica become for different reason important is RSD applications.

Figure 10: | Number of Status Determination Decision par Asylum Country in 2020

Most RSD applications comes from Venezuelan, Colombians and Central America people. Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Guatemala, Mexico Cuba and Haiti people together have more RSD applications than Venezuelan.

What are the levels of recognition rate?

Looking at the decision process, we can see that the level of recognition varies widely depending both on the country of Asylum and on the country of Origin. Brazil, Ecuador, Peru and Mexico have higher Refugee Recognition Rate (RRR) in Americas.

The Refugee Recognition Rate (RRR) divides the number of asylum-seekers granted Convention refugee status by the total number of accepted (Convention and, where relevant, humanitarian status) and rejected cases. The Total Recognition Rate (TRR) divides the number of asylum-seekers granted Convention refugee status and humanitarian status by the total number of accepted (Convention and, where relevant, humanitarian status) and rejected cases. Non-substantive decisions are, to the extent possible, excluded from both calculations.

For the purpose of international comparability, UNHCR only uses these two recognition rates and does not report nationally calculated rates, for instance rates disaggregated by RSD stage (1st instance vs. appeal), and by internal processing agency within the country or specific calculations potentially skewing the perception such as recognized/(recognized+rejected) instead of recognized/decided.

Figure 11: | Refugee Recognition rate in 2020

And for the minority of Venezuelan that can go through this process, the recognition rate is the actually the highest among other country of origin in the region. Central America people have good Refugee Recognition Rate (especially Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Cuba, Guatemala, Haiti and Mexico).

How are RSD decisions being issued?

????? This chart shows the RSD decisions are issued in Americas. From left to the right: The first line represent the nationalities of the RSD applications. The second vertical line represent the institution where the RSD people applies: in Americas people applied mostly to the government, and sometimes directly to UNHCR. The third line describes how it is issued the RSD applications. The forth line the results of the RSD applications.And the fifth and last vertical line shows where the asylium is issued.

Most RSD applications comes from Venezuelan (first line on the left). Most of the asylium activity is issued by USA, Canada, Brazil, Costa Rica and Mexico

Figure 12: | Asylum Decision in 2020

Impact of Covid-19, a dramatic restriction of solutions

Since the first case of COVID-19 was recorded in December 2019, more than 170 million people worldwide have contracted the virus. The Americas is among the most affected regions

Durable solutions include voluntary repatriation, resettlement to a third country, local integration, naturalization and return to place of origin prior to displacement (for IDPs). However, a growing number of displaced populations have limited opportunities for a durable solution. The COVID-19 pandemic has only exacerbated these challenges.

Costa Rica. UNHCR expands cash assistance programme during COVID-19 crisis

The partial or full closure of borders, along with more general restrictions on movement aimed at limiting the pandemic’s spread, has dramatically impacted opportunities for displaced people to return to their home countries or resettle to other countries.

Figure 13: | Trends for Solution

The Resettlement solution decreased in the last 5 years. In the region, the total recorded solutions account for about 0.13 % of the total number of people of concern to UNHCR (In the details: Total Returned Refugees 0, Total Returned IDP 0, Total Resettlement 19,000 and Total Naturalisation 5,000)

Venezuela Situation

As the second-largest displacement crisis in the world, refugees and migrants from Venezuela now total 5.7 million globally, of which more than 80 percent are hosted by countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. To date, more than 171,000 have been recognized as refugees and over 850,000 asylum claims have also been lodged worldwide. Across the region, just under 2.7 million have been granted some form of residency or regular stay permit.

Inside Venezuela, UNHCR protects and assists refugees and Venezuelan nationals. The latter is done in the framework of the Humanitarian Response Plan which targets 4.5 million persons in need. Primarily through the protection cluster and the cluster responsible for shelter, energy and non-food items, UNHCR’s coordination and operational efforts support people on-the-move, at risk of displacement, host communities, as well as limited numbers of spontaneous returns, especially in border areas and along key population movement routes.

Figure 14: | Venezuelan Diaspora Abroad

Central America

Using Survey to get demographic Breakdown

Often demographic data are not available in Americas. Available demographic data for persons of concern in the region for 2020 show a balance between sex. Of the total population, more than 30 per cent are children below the age of 18 and around the 5 per cent are elderly 60 years and above. More than 35 per cent are between 18-59 years.

Figure 15: | Demographic breakdown

Other of Concerns in El Salvador, Honduras, Guatemala & Mexico

In Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala and Mexico, The situation is characterized by a complex mixed movement, including flows of thousands of persons transiting towards the north, with a significant - though difficult to quantify - number of persons with possible protection needs. Currently, “Mixed movements” and “people in transit” have been categorized in the ‘Other persons of concern’ (OoC) category. The following summarizes the OoC figures (2018-2020) for El Salvador and Honduras, Guatemala and Mexico.

Guatemala and Mexico operations have similar method: The figure of OoC correspond to an estimation of flows of deportees/persons in transit with possible protection needs during the year, estimated based on border data and the proportion of persons in transit with possible protection needs based on protection monitoring exercises conducted by partners and UNHCR. In El Salvador and Honduras as well, the figure corresponds to Salvadorian deported population with possible protection needs. The group is estimated as the proportion of deported persons during the year that reported insecurity/violence as reason for leaving the country, based on interviews conducted by the government upon return of the populations and information comes from IOM based on data from DGME (Government), but the estimation is made by UNHCR.

The main limitations of the method used to measure ‘Other persons of concern’ category for Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala and Mexico are related to (i) different sources of data and duplication (ii) harmonization of methods used to estimate these flows across countries; (iii) awareness / validation from Governments in the region around these figures; (iv) how to properly distinguish flows vs. stocks in UNHCR reporting both for statistical and programmatic (persons assisted) purposes.

The scarcity and low quality of data in this context can justify the use of best available source as soon as this is correctly documented. According to the draft ‘UNHCR Statistical Quality Assurance Framework’: ‘UNHCR publishes statistics … including definitions of concepts, target populations, indicators and other terminology describing the output and its limitations for easier interpretation by users.

Reflecting mixed movements into official UNHCR figures comes some challenges:

1. Statistical vs Operational categories: Currently there is no unified standard for recording mixed movements, so they have been lumped in the ‘Other persons of concern’ (OoC). It might not be the best option for visibility and understanding of the complexity of different mixed movements.

2. Reporting challenge: In the current system, it is not possible to report the number of assisted individuals for a population category unless that same category is first recorded as a ‘stock’.

3. Political Sensitiveness: Problem with deportees or persons in transit with Protection needs that reflects on a population that was potentially not able to access protection support and/or asylum.

4. Technical Challenge: Because of the methods used to estimate those population categories, there are inherent risk of duplication of records between the different type of flows and across countries.

Following the ?????? 10 points plan of actions on mixed movementshttps://www.unhcr.org/the-10-point-plan-in-action.html, UNHCR needs to improve its capacity to report mixed movements. The ‘Other persons of concern’ statistical category might need to be broken down into operational sub-categories to facilitate the understanding of the complexity of different mixed movements and enable better programmatic response. To set up a system that would allow to both address operational demand and statistical consistency, it could be both needed to develop and validate specific operational reporting categories for mixed movement and to articulate the reporting of those categories between UNHCR operational portal for Central Americahttps://data.unhcr.org/es/situations/cam and UNHCR Official Statistical Reporting.

IDP Population Estimation in Colombia

Colombia IDP are the Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) is the 17 per cent of world’s IDP (8,253,000 over 48,557,439). This is the official figure. This is a historical and cumulative figure of IDPs is being used nowadays.

The evolution in the last 20 years shows a significant increased in Internally Displaced Persons, especially in Colombia (8,252,788 over 8,571,000 in the region).

Figure 16: | IDP Population estimates in Colombia

Total number of IDPs as of 31 December 2020 as per IDMChttps://www.internal-displacement.org/countries/colombia: 4,922,000

This figure refers to people internally displaced since 1985 by the armed conflict in Colombia. Pending further information and evidence, those who are in a situation of displacement, but progressing towards a durable solution have not been included. Though IDMC includes some information on potential caveheathttps://www.internal-displacement.org/sites/default/files/2021-05/figure-analysis-col_0.pdf

A revision of the IDPs in Colombia can change this figure using EGRIS IRIShttps://www.unhcr.org/statistics/unhcrstats/600188974/international-recommendations-internally-displaced-persons-statistics-iris.html - the Composite indicator measurement on HH Survey could be an opportunity.